{"id":7652,"date":"2011-11-10T23:26:05","date_gmt":"2011-11-11T04:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.discovermagazine.com\/collideascape\/?p=7652"},"modified":"2011-11-10T23:26:05","modified_gmt":"2011-11-11T04:26:05","slug":"forecasting-climate-doom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/?p=7652","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Climate Doom"},"content":{"rendered":"

The report<\/a> issued this week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) made a splash in the climate blogosphere and in some big-time media outlets like the Guardian, which ran a story<\/a> with this headline:<\/p>\n

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

https://dinoeliadis.com/business-plan/ That got me thinking of James Hansen’s warning <\/a>in 2006 and how it pretty much lined up with the IEA’s. Add a pinch of Richard Betts<\/a> and here’s what I ended up writing<\/a> over at the Yale Forum on Climate Change & the Media.<\/p>\n

Speaking of Hansen, he’s just put up a new paper<\/a> on his website, titled “Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice.” He writes:<\/p>\n

The greatest barrier to public recognition of human-made climate change is the natural\u00a0variability of climate.\u00a0 How can a person discern long-term climate change, given the notorious\u00a0variability of local weather and climate from day to day and year to year?<\/p>\n

Order Ativan Online This question assumes great practical importance, because of the need for the public to\u00a0appreciate the significance of human-made global warming.\u00a0 Actions to stem emissions of the\u00a0gases that cause global warming, mainly CO2, are unlikely to approach what is needed until the\u00a0public perceives that human-made climate change is underway and will have disastrous\u00a0consequences if effective actions are not taken to short-circuit the climate change.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hansen goes on to argue, “with a high degree of confidence,” that the severe weather in Texas this summer and the 2010 heat waves in Moscow “were a consequence of\u00a0global warming.” He continues:<\/p>\n

People who deny the global warming cause of these extreme events usually offer instead\u00a0a meteorological “explanation”.\u00a0 For example, it is said that the Moscow heat wave was caused\u00a0by an atmospheric “blocking” situation, or the Texas heat wave was caused by La Nina ocean\u00a0temperature patterns.\u00a0 Of course the locations of the extreme anomalies in any given season are\u00a0determined by the specific weather patterns.\u00a0 However, blocking patterns and La Ninas have\u00a0always been common, yet the large areas of extreme warming have come into existence only\u00a0with large global warming. Today’s extreme anomalies occur because of simultaneous\u00a0contributions of specific weather patterns and global warming. For example, places experiencing\u00a0an extended period of high atmospheric pressure will tend to develop drought conditions that are\u00a0amplified by the ubiquitous warming effect of elevated greenhouse gas amounts.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

https://disneycruisinggroup.com/releases/ If the oil & gas industry maintains its stranglehold, which the IEA in its report says is all but assured, then climate doom is also assured, Hansen (unsurprisingly) concludes:<\/p>\n

https://forgive123.com/about/ Science does show that business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions will cause atmospheric\u00a0CO2 to continue to increase rapidly.\u00a0 The increasing greenhouse gases will cause the rapid global\u00a0warming of the past three decades to continue, and this warming will cause the climate dice to\u00a0become more and more loaded with greater and greater extreme events. The probability that this\u00a0conclusion is wrong is about as close to zero as one can get.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There are two different scenarios forecast by both Hansen and the IEA, which threaten to collide very shortly. The first is that we are a few years away from irreversible global warming being locked in. The second is that we are a few years away from the fossil fuel economy being irreversibly locked in for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

And some people wonder why geoengineering is taken seriously<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

https://theroyalstagproperties.com/accommodations/ The report issued this week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) made a splash in the climate blogosphere and in some big-time media outlets like the Guardian, which ran a story with this headline: World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns That got me thinking of James Hansen’s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2553,2561],"tags":[835,851,1120,1217],"class_list":["post-7652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-climate-science","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-science","tag-global-warming","tag-james-hansen"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7652\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}