{"id":6601,"date":"2011-07-21T12:07:15","date_gmt":"2011-07-21T16:07:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.discovermagazine.com\/collideascape\/?p=6601"},"modified":"2011-07-21T12:07:15","modified_gmt":"2011-07-21T16:07:15","slug":"why-paleoclimate-rules","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/?p=6601","title":{"rendered":"Why Paleoclimate Rules"},"content":{"rendered":"

An abridged, reader-friendly version of this paper<\/a> (and published here<\/a>)\u00a0is now available. Here’s the article<\/a> and opening section:<\/p>\n

Diazepam Online Purchase The past is the key to the future.\u00a0 Contrary to popular belief, climate models are not the principal\u00a0basis for assessing human-made climate effects.\u00a0 Our most precise knowledge comes from\u00a0Earth’s paleoclimate, its ancient climate, and how it responded to past changes of climate\u00a0forcings, including atmospheric composition.\u00a0 Our second essential source of information is\u00a0provided by global observations today, especially satellite observations, which reveal how the\u00a0climate system is responding to rapid human-made changes of atmospheric composition,\u00a0especially atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).\u00a0 Models help us interpret past and present climate\u00a0changes, and, in so far as they succeed in simulating past changes, they provide a tool to help\u00a0evaluate the impacts of alternative policies that affect climate<\/p>\n

Ambien No Prescription Paleoclimate data yield our best assessment of climate sensitivity, which is the eventual global\u00a0temperature change in response to a specified climate forcing.\u00a0 A climate forcing is an imposed \u00a0change of Earth’s energy balance, as may be caused, for example, by a change of the sun’s\u00a0brightness or a human-made change of atmospheric CO2.\u00a0 For convenience scientists often\u00a0consider a standard forcing, doubled atmospheric CO2, because that is a level of forcing that\u00a0humans will impose this century if fossil fuel use continues unabated.<\/p>\n

We show from paleoclimate data that the eventual global warming due to doubled CO2 will be\u00a0about 3\u00b0C (5.4\u00b0F) when only so-called fast feedbacks have responded to the forcing.\u00a0 Fast\u00a0feedbacks are changes of quantities such as atmospheric water vapor and clouds, which\u00a0change as climate changes, thus amplifying or diminishing climate change.\u00a0 Fast feedbacks\u00a0come into play as global temperature changes, so their full effect is delayed several centuries by\u00a0the thermal inertia of the ocean, which slows full climate response.\u00a0 However, about half of the\u00a0fast-feedback climate response is expected to occur within a few decades.\u00a0 Climate response\u00a0time is one of the important ‘details’ that climate models help to elucidate.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

https://www.andrewplimmer.com/faqs/ H\/T: Andy Revkin’s indispensable Twitter feed<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An abridged, reader-friendly version of this paper (and published here)\u00a0is now available. Here’s the article and opening section: The past is the key to the future.\u00a0 Contrary to popular belief, climate models are not the principal\u00a0basis for assessing human-made climate effects.\u00a0 Our most precise knowledge comes from\u00a0Earth’s paleoclimate, its ancient climate, and how it responded… Purchase Xanax Online Continue Reading…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2553,2561],"tags":[835,851,1443],"class_list":["post-6601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-climate-science","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-science","tag-paleoclimate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6601\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.keithkloor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}